climate economics — papers

EconomicsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · Jan 2017 Open access

Revisiting the social cost of carbon

William D. Nordhaus

Nordhaus presents the updated DICE-2016R integrated assessment model and uses it to re-estimate the social cost of carbon, incorporating revised data on output, emissions, carbon cycle, and climate dynamics. The updated model yields a substantially higher social cost of carbon than earlier DICE versions and indicates that limiting warming to 2.5°C is feasible only with very rapid and stringent emissions reductions. The paper concludes that current policies fall well short of an economically optimal climate trajectory.

social cost of carbon climate economics integrated assessment dice model

EconomicsNature · Oct 2015 Open access

Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang and Edward Miguel

Using data from 166 countries over 1960-2010, the authors estimate a non-linear relationship between annual average temperature and economic productivity, finding output peaks near 13°C and falls sharply at higher temperatures. They project that unmitigated warming could substantially reduce average global incomes and widen global inequality by the end of the century.

climate economics temperature economic growth climate change