Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang, Edward Miguel
Summary
Using data from 166 countries over 1960-2010, the authors estimate a non-linear relationship between annual average temperature and economic productivity, finding output peaks near 13°C and falls sharply at higher temperatures. They project that unmitigated warming could substantially reduce average global incomes and widen global inequality by the end of the century.
Key findings
- Aggregate economic productivity is a smooth, non-linear (inverted-U) function of temperature, peaking at roughly 13°C annual average.
- The same response holds for both rich and poor countries and for agricultural and non-agricultural output.
- Unmitigated warming is projected to cut average global incomes by around 23% by 2100 relative to a no-warming baseline and to widen global income inequality.
Subjects & keywords
Cite this paper
Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang, & Edward Miguel (2015). Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725
@article{burke2015global,
author = {Marshall Burke and Solomon M. Hsiang and Edward Miguel},
title = {Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production},
journal = {Nature},
year = {2015},
doi = {10.1038/nature15725},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725}
}