Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity
Manabe and Wetherald developed a one-dimensional radiative-convective model of the atmosphere that, given a fixed distribution of relative humidity, computed the vertical temperature profile in thermal equilibrium. Incorporating realistic radiative transfer for water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone together with a convective adjustment, they estimated the surface and atmospheric temperature response to changes in CO₂. The study is widely regarded as the first physically based estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity and demonstrated the central role of water-vapor feedback in amplifying CO₂-induced warming.